The Kingdom of Spain

Introduction:

The Kingdom of Spain was, until the mid-16th century, one of the dominant powers in Europe. Its strength was particularly rooted in its South American empire and its territories in Northern Europe.

In the following centuries, however, Spain saw its power decline and its diplomatic influence wane. By the beginning of the 19th century, it had become a secondary nation, playing no significant role in Europe. In the 20th century, its decline continued, and it fell behind economically. By 1960, its economy exhibited characteristics of a developing country.

Furthermore, the authoritarian regime that emerged from the 1936 civil war, embodied by General Franco, left the country isolated from the international community. Despite the United States' interest in Spain during the Cold War, by the time of Franco’s death, Spain was seen by Europe as a nation tolerated rather than embraced.

In 1975, analysts predicted a difficult succession, likely involving military coups. However, Spain managed to find an exemplary path to democratic transition, allowing it to rejoin the international community.

Today, Spain has re-established itself as a regional power, actively participating in the Western institutions it is part of. Additionally, its strategic location in the Mediterranean has given it renewed importance in a sensitive region crucial for European security.

Following an overview of the decline that led Spain to post-war isolation, this analysis will explore Spain’s resurgence. A final section will examine in more detail Spain’s position on NATO’s southern flank.

1-Presentation of Spain:

The goal of this first section is to provide the necessary elements to understand or explain certain geopolitical aspects that will be addressed later. First, essential geographical and demographic data will be presented, followed by an examination of the uniqueness of the Spanish nation. Finally, economic data will help position Spain in relation to other European countries.

1. Geographical Elements:

Spain is geographically part of Europe, forming its southernmost part. Together with Portugal, it makes up the Iberian Peninsula. Aside from Portugal, it shares a European border only with France to the north. This border is marked by the Pyrenees mountain range, which serves as a natural barrier.

During the Cold War, Spain was the European country in the Western bloc most distant from the forces of the Warsaw Pact, making it the last geographical stronghold of Europe. Separated from Africa by the Strait of Gibraltar, Spain sits at the crossroads between Europe and Africa. Here, the distance between the two continents is less than fifteen nautical miles, and the strait serves as one of the most critical pathways for migration flows from Africa to Europe.

In its history, Spain experienced Arab influence more than any other European country. The Arab conquest of Europe began from Spain, crossing the Strait of Gibraltar. The Arab Empire expanded up to the southern half of France, reaching its territorial peak in the 8th century. The reconquest of Spain by the Catholic kings was a long process, only truly certain after the victory at Las Navas de Tolosa in 1212, and concluded in 1492 with the liberation of Granada. As a result, certain regions remained under Arab rule and influence for over 500 years.

Spain has a privileged position in the western Mediterranean as it closes off this sea to the west through the Strait of Gibraltar. Spain maintains a presence on the southern Mediterranean coast through its five Moroccan territories opposite the Andalusian coast. These territories include Ceuta and Melilla, the Alhucemas islets three small islands, Vélez de Gomara, and the Chafarinas Islands, located 28 miles from Melilla. Thus, Spain holds a presence on both sides of the strait and nearly monopolizes control over free navigation through the strait alongside Britain, which holds Gibraltar within Spanish territory. Additionally, Spain possesses the Balearic Islands in the western Mediterranean.

Spain is also present in the Atlantic Ocean. The Canary Islands, located about 100 kilometers west of the Moroccan coast, belong to Spain. However, these islands are too close to the coast and too far south to play a major geostrategic role in the Atlantic. The main economic activities on these islands are tourism, favored by their renowned climate the islands were once called the Hesperides and later the Fortunate Isles, and fishing.

2. Demographic Elements:

Spain has an area of 504,000 km² and a population of 40 million. Its population density is one of the lowest in the European Union.

Spain has undergone significant rural exodus, driven by the decreasing role of agriculture in the national economy and the resulting decline in the farming population. Between 1975 and 1996, the urban population increased by six million, while the rural population dropped by two million, so population growth occurred only in cities. In 1975, Spain's fertility rate 2,63 was well above that of a developed country. By 1996, this rate had dropped to the level of Germany 1,3.

From a demographic perspective, Spain achieved, in twenty years, figures comparable to those of its neighbors.

3. Political Spain: One State, Multiple Nations:

Spain's current borders are very old 12th century with Portugal and 1659, Treaty of the Pyrenees, with France. Despite their longevity, Spain remains culturally heterogeneous. It is made up of four main linguistic groups:

• Castilian, the official language throughout Spain;
• Catalan, spoken along the Mediterranean coast up to French Roussillon;
• Galician, spoken on the Atlantic coast;
• Basque, in the northwest of the peninsula, also extending into France. These linguistic groups also correspond to political entities.

The ascent of King Juan Carlos to power and the adoption of a new constitution in 1978 granted a degree of autonomy to Spain’s various regions. The constitution specifically acknowledges that Spain comprises several "nationalities," which are integral components of the Spanish nation. Seventeen autonomous communities, each with its own elected parliament and government, were created. The level of autonomy and powers vary between regions. This complex system of autonomy has not entirely resolved the identity issues of the regions, nor has it quelled all independence movements, which remain particularly active in Catalonia and, through terrorism, in the Basque Country.

Catalonia and the Basque Country have strong national identities, and a portion of their populations reject the concept of a unified Spanish nation. These two regions have driven Spain's economic development and are the most industrialized areas in Spain. Independence movements have always been active here. Francoism, committed to national indivisibility, repressed independence organizations, which responded with especially deadly attacks.

Relations between the regions and the central government continue to be contentious, with the powers of various communities frequently negotiated. Spain is often described as an assembly of nations within a single state.

In daily life, a true national sentiment is largely absent, and regions struggle to accept decisions made by the government in Madrid. This view can be nuanced by referring to history: during the Napoleonic invasion of Spain, Spaniards united to resist the French army.

Economic Elements:

In 1975, Spain was considered “behind” within Europe. By 1996, it emerged as a modernized economic power, fully integrated into the European economy. During this period, Spain’s economic structures underwent fundamental changes to align with those of other European countries.

From 1975 to 1998, Spain’s GDP grew at a slightly higher rate than that of other European countries. However, despite this growth, Spain’s per capita GDP remained lower, at $15,000, compared to France, Germany, and Italy, each with over $20,000. During this same period, the share of foreign trade in Spain’s GDP increased significantly from 16% to 24%, putting it on par with countries like France 23% of GDP, Germany 23%, and the United Kingdom 29%.

Spanish trade with EU countries experienced notable growth, with 66% of imports and 71% of exports directed toward Europe by the end of the period, compared to 40% and 53%, respectively, in 1975. Meanwhile, trade with the United States declined sharply; the U.S. accounted for only 6% of Spanish imports and 4% of exports, down from 16% and 12% in 1975.

The structure of Spain’s economy also shifted to resemble developed economies. The primary and secondary sectors decreased in favor of services; agriculture, which represented 22% of GDP in 1975, dropped to 8% by 1996. However, this was still twice the agricultural share of France, known for its strong agricultural sector.

Unemployment, which had risen alarmingly until 1996, seemed under control by 1998, dropping from 21.6% in 1996 to 18%. Although this rate was still higher than that of other European countries Germany, Italy, and France hovered around 12%, while the UK had 8%, the steady decline in recent years indicated that the economy was on the right track and continued its modernization.

This quick overview of basic economic data shows that over the past two decades, Spain’s foreign trade has become more dynamic, and its economic partners have shifted. Spain has opened up internationally, with the United States playing a reduced role in trade in favor of EU countries. The Spanish economy has caught up somewhat, with its structure aligning more closely with neighboring developed countries, establishing it as a robust contributor to international integration.

2-Isolated Spain:

Examining the period from the 17th century to the post-war years reveals a consistent geopolitical trend in Spain: a decline from its dominant European position to colonial losses and finally diplomatic isolation. This period illustrates Professor Jean-Baptiste Duroselle’s theory that all empires will perish.

The Peak of the Spanish Empire:

Spain is one of Europe’s oldest states, unified in 1479 under the Catholic monarchs through the union of Aragon and Castile. In 1492, Christopher Columbus discovered America under Spanish patronage, leading to the conquest of South America. By the 16th century, Spain had established an immense empire encompassing territories in South America and parts of Italy and the Netherlands. In 1519, the Spanish king was crowned Holy Roman Emperor, Charles V. From 1580 to 1668, the Spanish king also ruled Portugal and its territories in Brazil, Africa, and Asia. This period, known as the Golden Age, marked Spain as Europe’s greatest power, with the largest colonial empire.

After the Treaty of the Pyrenees in 1659, Spain’s central role in international relations shifted toward Central Europe, sidelining it from major diplomatic actions. Spain then focused on its South American colonies, beginning a slow decline. Spain returned to the international stage in 1808 when Napoleon placed his brother on the Spanish throne, sparking fierce resistance from Spaniards with British support. This conflict is regarded as Spain’s war of independence.

Colonial Losses and International Marginalization:

Following its war of independence, Spain faced revolts in its South American colonies, which gained independence after intense wars from 1804 to 1824. Despite Spain’s efforts, it received no aid from European nations, and the United States and England even supported South American leaders like Bolivar. Without colonial ties, Spain failed to maintain privileged relations with its former colonies, while rival European powers and the U.S. quickly established dominant economic influence.

In international relations, Spain became a secondary power. By 1818, at the Congress of Aix-la-Chapelle, which included only great powers, Spain was not invited, even as a secondary power.

Starting in the 1880s, Europe entered a period of colonial expansion that Spain largely missed. By the late 19th century, Spain’s colonial possessions were limited to the Philippines and a few territories in the Caribbean.

The Trauma of 1898:

Spain profited significantly from Cuba’s sugar, tobacco, and iron industries, and the Caribbean was a vital market for Spanish goods. After the Cuban War of Independence 1895, a conflict with the U.S. resulted in Spain’s defeat and the 1898 Treaty of Paris, ceding Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Philippines, and Guam to the U.S. This loss of territory was deeply humiliating, symbolizing Spain’s decline.

At the dawn of the 20th century, Spain retained only the Canary Islands and its Moroccan territories. Isolated from European powers and without allies, Spain remained on the periphery as alliances were formed leading up to World War I. Though spared the suffering of direct involvement, Spain was indirectly affected, with resistance movements rising in Spanish-controlled Morocco.

The 19th century marked a significant decline for Spain. Having lost its territories, it failed to participate in any major historical movements and lacked alliances. This marked retreat led to a severe moral and political crisis, compounded by the economic turmoil of the 1930s, ultimately resulting in the Spanish Civil War of 1936.

Franco’s Autarky and Threats:

Spain During World War II:

The Spanish Civil War 1936-1939 brought General Franco to power. Though supported by Mussolini’s Italy and Hitler’s Germany, Spain’s non interventionist stance kept it officially neutral in WWII. Franco’s support for the Axis was limited to raw materials and the symbolic deployment of the Blue Division on the Eastern Front. Allied powers were keen on keeping Spain neutral to prevent it from serving as a German base.

While Spain remained outside the conflict, it retained control of the Strait of Gibraltar, refrained from territorial ambitions in North Africa, and avoided conflict with the Allies.

Post-War Isolation:

Following WWII, Spain faced total isolation. Despite its neutrality and efforts to protect Jews, Franco’s regime was ostracized, viewed as the last surviving fascist regime. In 1945, Spain was excluded from the United Nations. Stalin declared in 1945 that Franco’s regime should be dismantled, and the U.S. initially opposed the Spanish government. In 1946, France advocated for a return to a republican regime in Spain, called for an economic blockade, and closed its borders.

However, as the Cold War began, Franco’s staunch anti communism led to a shift. The 1946 Fulton speech by Churchill, warning of the communist threat, helped Spain gain acceptance as a potential counterbalance to Soviet influence in Europe.

3-The Renaissance of a Power:

During the Cold War, the United States, keen to strengthen the Western bloc, made Spain a strategic ally. This was largely because Franco’s regime was staunchly anti communist, and Spain’s geostrategic position was advantageous to the Western setup in Europe. However, Spain’s integration was limited due to the nature of its political regime. With the democratization that began after Franco’s death, Spain experienced a full renaissance, integrating into Western institutions and actively participating in contemporary international relations.

Cold War and Opening (1947-1957):

Spain’s isolation began to ease in 1947 when Argentina sent its ambassador to Madrid, defying a UN resolution. Furthermore, proposed sanctions against the regime failed to gather enough votes within the UN. France reopened its border with Spain in February 1948.

From 1947 to 1951, Spain was tolerated; it was de facto linked to the Western bloc, though it was not officially recognized as an ally. For instance, the proposal to include Spain in the Marshall Plan was ultimately rejected by the United States. During this tense Cold War period, Spanish diplomacy continuously asserted its loyalty to the Western bloc, its reliability, and its desire to join NATO and contribute to European defense amid growing tensions.

For the United States, Spain held considerable strategic value due to its geographical position. It was distant from the central European front, providing NATO with added territorial depth compared to the more extensive Warsaw Pact. Spain’s Atlantic-facing position made it a viable platform for American troops, while its location between the Mediterranean and the Atlantic allowed it to monitor movements between these regions. It could also host the Sixth Fleet operating in the Mediterranean. As a result, the U.S. military advocated for Spain’s inclusion in the Western bloc.

From 1951, Spain’s openness took shape. The U.S. and Britain sent ambassadors to Madrid, and Spain joined the World Health Organization, the Universal Postal Union, and the International Civil Aviation Organization. The United States, after voting substantial aid to Spain to bolster its struggling military, signed bilateral agreements on September 26, 1953. These agreements made Spain a committed ally in Western defense without being a NATO member. In return, the U.S. provided Spain with financial aid, materials, and cooperation in various fields, and in exchange, the U.S. obtained naval and air bases on Spanish territory. However, despite its closer alignment with the Western bloc, Spain remained outside the European integration negotiations European Coal and Steel Community   ECSC, European Defense Community - EDC, and the Council of Europe.

In practice, Spain found itself in a highly unequal relationship with the U.S. and Western Europe. The concessions made in the military agreements clearly reflect this imbalance. These allowed the American government unilateral use of Spanish territory within the scope of nuclear arms, dependent solely on the perceived level of threat. Beyond the financial and economic benefits these 1953 agreements provided, their symbolic and political significance was immense. They marked implicit recognition of Franco’s regime and were accompanied by a partial surrender of sovereignty to the United States.

Spain in the European Union:

Spain's entry into the European Economic Community EEC had long been a goal for Spanish governments. With democratization, Spain hoped it had removed the last obstacles to entry. In July 1977, the Spanish government submitted its official application for integration into the EEC.

Negotiations with the EEC were challenging. Spain's entry raised concerns about French agricultural interests and was complicated by Spain's support for Argentina during the Falklands War, the blockade of the British colony of Gibraltar imposed by Franco in 1969, and the Dutch demand that Spain recognize the State of Israel before joining the EEC. After lengthy negotiations, an agreement was reached, and on January 1, 1986, Spain joined the European Community. From that point on, Spain fully embraced the European path, undertaking structural reforms to align more closely with other community members devaluation of currency, reduction of state involvement in numerous economic sectors, consolidation of Spanish industries, and reforms of the banking and stock market sectors.

On June 16, 1989, the Spanish peseta joined the European Monetary System at an overvalued exchange rate to stabilize an economy under strain. Trade with the European community increased, accounting for over 60% of Spain’s total trade, while trade with the United States declined in relative importance. European investments surged across various industrial sectors, significantly reducing unemployment. Until 1992, Spain had the highest growth rate in the community.

The year 1992 was highly symbolic for Spain, marking the 500th anniversary of Columbus’s discovery of America, the Barcelona Olympics, and the Seville World Expo. These events highlighted Spain’s return as a nation with an international presence, ready to play an influential role again.

To strengthen its connection with the continent and transcend the natural border of the Pyrenees, Spain sought to improve access to France. This led to the development of new transportation routes through the Pyrenees, including the Somport tunnel on the Pau-Zaragoza axis and the Puymorens tunnel on the Toulouse Barcelona axis. High-speed rail projects were also considered to connect Madrid with cities in southern France Bordeaux and Montpellier. At the Franco-Spanish summit in December 1998, the Montpellier-Barcelona line was launched. There was also an ecologically controversial proposal for a high-voltage cross-border power line that would allow Spain to import large quantities of electricity from France, essential for its development.

Spain also embraced the single currency without hesitation. It was among the countries meeting the convergence criteria, with statistics released on February 25, 1998, confirming the significant efforts by Spanish governments to align with the fiscal management standards of northern European countries and the Maastricht Treaty. Spain, along with Portugal, was seen as a "model student" by European economic and political leaders.

To promote Southern Europe, large urban centers in southern France Montpellier and Toulouse partnered with the group formed by Barcelona, Zaragoza, Valencia, and Palma de Mallorca. Southern France thus found development partners across the Pyrenees. Through this cross-border synergy, Spain demonstrated its firm commitment to Europe.

The continuity of economic policies under successive governments showed the determination of Spain’s leaders and political forces to actively and wholeheartedly contribute to the construction of Europe.

On July 6, 1998, in a letter of intent, Spain joined five other European countries to facilitate the creation of unified defense companies through alliances, mergers, or restructurings of their national industries. This letter proposed to harmonize military needs, secure collective supply chains, and align regulations on arms sales. Spain thus demonstrated its commitment to achieving a high level of European integration in the military and economic fields.

The Spanish people are largely pro-European, aware that their country had been distant from European affairs and did not participate in Europe’s post-World War II development. EU membership enabled economic growth that would have been unattainable outside the European community, granting Spain an international profile it could not have achieved on its own.

Non-terrorist nationalist movements that accept democracy favor Spain’s integration into Europe, seeing it as a path to achieving their nationalist aspirations within a framework where the nation-state becomes unnecessary. Most non-nationalist Spaniards, as well as Spanish nationalists, also aspire to European integration, but within a framework that respects the integrity of the state, as they believe this can help ease tensions between nationalities.

Conclusion:

Spain can be considered a new country within Europe. It is new because it joined various Western structures less than 20 years ago. It is new as it re-emerges in international relations after almost a century of neglect, indifference, or ostracism. It is “new” because it has made significant modernization efforts. Finally, it is new because its current regime is the youngest in Western Europe.

Spain’s democratic transition is seen as a model because it allowed the Spanish people to change regimes without rejecting the past, avoiding the destabilization that some observers had predicted. This successful transition has facilitated the resurgence of Spanish power.

With a desire for full integration into the Western world, Spain fully embraces the different institutions to which it belongs and plays an active role within them. Having regained its status as a regional power in the Mediterranean, it is seen as a reliable and secure element for the safety of Western countries in the face of potential dangers in this region.