What are the disputes between India and the countries in the region?

INTRODUCTION:

 India, a vast peninsula in South Asia, is situated between the mountainous barrier of the Himalayas and the Indian Ocean. It covers a territory of 3,268,090 km², with a population nearing one billion. A plural entity, it is characterized by ethnic diversity, religious plurality, and a mosaic of languages.

India is considered the world's largest democracy. Its political system is marked by institutional stability and the art of compromise, which has allowed it to avoid the tragedies and turmoil that have plagued the region. The viability and unity of the country are also based on the founding principles inherited from the independence movement: Democracy, Secularism, Rule of Law, and Federalism. These values maintain the balance between central power and the peripheries. Despite the collapse of several federal states, the Indian miracle stands as a symbol of longevity and stability.

Nehru, a leading figure of Indian nationalism, enabled one of the most unequal societies in the world to adopt a parliamentary regime.

Rivalries and Regional Powers

As the rivalry between nuclear powers intensifies in this strategic region, the prospect of military confrontation remains unlikely. Indeed, India cannot count on a swift victory due to the challenging terrain. Meanwhile, Pakistan faces unprecedented economic crises and is shaken by violent internal strife. On the other hand, China, which aspires to regional leadership, pursues a peaceful approach to establish its hegemony.

Principles of the Ruling Party

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, leader of the "Bharatiya Janata Party" (Indian People's Party or BJP), heads the political wing of the Hindu ultra-nationalist movement. Founded in 1980, the BJP became the main opposition force and the second-largest political party in India within less than a decade.

The BJP’s success stems from a political agenda focused on the rising threats undermining Hindu primacy. The instrumentalization of intercommunal violence seems to pay off electorally. Its electoral strategy highlights the Hindu-Muslim divide. The BJP is led by members of the upper castes and advocates for a nationalist policy. It also supports a strong India, as evidenced by nuclear tests. The party has taken radical positions on the crises in Punjab and especially in Kashmir.

Anti-Muslim, the BJP opposes the application of Sharia law for marital affairs, which Muslims had previously secured. The BJP particularly stood out in December 1992, when Hindu extremists destroyed the Babri Masjid mosque in Ayodhya, sparking a wave of violence that engulfed the country and threatened social peace. This violence was used to fuel community hatred and polarize the BJP electorate along religious lines.

Following its defeat in the 1993 elections, the BJP adopted a more moderate stance and softened its rhetoric toward minorities, making itself acceptable to a new electorate representing all castes. The BJP is the product of the rise of an exacerbated communalism based on religious chauvinism, which often leads to bloody interfaith riots.

The BJP is entirely opposed to Gandhi’s ecumenism. It defends an aggregate ideology to build a powerful Indian nation.

Indian Diplomacy

India seems to be striving to position itself among the global powers. The Indian government has opted for a "proximity diplomacy" aimed at improving the regional climate. This followed its first nuclear explosion in 1974, which was proclaimed peaceful and marked the success of a program initiated in the mid-1950s. India has worked on a policy to ease the concerns of neighboring countries and has pursued a regional anchoring strategy, seen as essential for establishing a culture of trust and peace.

India launched a foreign policy called the "Gujral Doctrine," named after the Minister of Foreign Affairs (June 1996 – April 1997). It is based on five principles of good neighborliness:

• Renunciation of reciprocity with neighbors.
• Non-interference in the internal affairs of other states.
• Respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of other states.
• Settlement of disputes through bilateral negotiations.
• Non-use of a state's territory for actions directed against other states.

The Indian military complains about the limited role it plays in its own domain, particularly in the definition and formation of spending policies. It was excluded from preparations for the May 1998 nuclear tests.

The Indian Army

The Indian army is one of the most powerful in the world, both in terms of manpower and equipment. The land forces, with 1,100,000 men, rank 4th in the world. The air force, with 110,000 men, ranks 5th, and the navy, with 55,000 men, ranks 6th.

In its arms race, India increased its defense budget by 28% in 2000. It is actively working towards the implementation of a "minimal credible deterrent," as suggested by the nuclear doctrine project established in August 1999, which focuses on the three branches of the military, with particular interest in intercontinental missiles and the neutron bomb.

This sharp increase is linked to the geostrategic evolution of the subcontinent, particularly due to the region's nuclearization.

Organization of the Army

The Indian Army is organized into five operational commands: Southern, Western, Eastern, Northern, and Central. It deploys 12 corps, including 2 armored divisions, 1 mechanized division, 22 infantry divisions, 10 mountain divisions, 14 independent brigades, 6 artillery brigades, 2 engineering divisions, and 1 surface-to-surface missile regiment.

The reserve forces number 300,000 men, in addition to 160,000 territorial army volunteers.

The naval forces are organized into three main commands: Western, Eastern, and Southern, with two subcommands for submarines and naval aviation. They deploy two fleets, based in Bombay (West) and Visakhapatnam (East), with 2 aircraft carriers, 5 destroyers, 18 frigates, 15 submarines, 15 missile patrol boats, and mine sweepers.

Naval aviation includes two attack squadrons, 6 anti-submarine warfare helicopters, and 3 maritime reconnaissance squadrons.

The air force, organized into five commands, deploys 22 ground-attack fighter squadrons, 20 interceptor squadrons, 2 attack helicopter squadrons, and 2 reconnaissance squadrons.

India also deploys an impressive number of paramilitary forces.

INDIAN STRATEGY

Indian strategy is centered around three main pillars: mastery of the maritime space, mastery of nuclear technology, and space conquest. The sea is the main issue in India's opposition to neighboring powers on the one hand, and to external powers on the other. With 5,600 km of coastline and 230 ports, India is open to the ocean, its main commercial and communication route with the world.

However, this coastline is difficult to defend, leading Indian authorities to develop their naval forces and a maritime strategy for their strategic perimeter. As part of its general naval deterrence strategy, the Indian navy modernized its fleet between 1978 and 1988, making it the 6th largest maritime power in the world and the 1st in the Indian Ocean. However, lacking significant transport and landing capabilities, it cannot yet claim a true power projection.

In addition to its maritime role, India's special policies reflect a desire for independence and self-sufficiency, enabling the country to claim a place among the great powers. India became the 6th country capable of launching satellites after the successful launch of the ROHINI RS-1 satellite on July 18, 1980.

The geopolitical situation means India faces two hostile nuclear powers: Pakistan and China. The space program tends to have significant military applications, especially in intelligence, making India's remote sensing system the largest in the world. The coming decade is expected to confirm space as a means of expressing Indian power.

India's nuclear program began in the 1950s, with the acquisition of nuclear weapons as a major objective of Indian policy. At the time, nuclear weapons were seen as protection against external threats and an instrument of non-alignment, with India positioning itself as a champion of this movement. The path to nuclearization was pursued with determination.

On May 11 and 13, 1998, India joined the exclusive club of nuclear powers with the explosion of thermonuclear devices. Additionally, India developed ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads and has the ability to produce bombs with yields of up to 200 kilotons. These achievements have significantly impacted the balance of power in the region's strategic landscape.

LATENT CONFLICTS

The Himalayan region forms a natural barrier between India and China, with several countries located on the southern slopes of the range. These countries, occupying this strategic juncture, are of limited concern to Indian authorities. However, the disputes they are involved in, although minor, could escalate into major conflicts due to the region's strategic importance.

NEPAL

Nepal has disputes with India over shared rivers and border trade. However, due to its economic and military weakness, it seeks to avoid direct conflict with its southern neighbor. Instead, Nepal attempts to maneuver politically, thanks to its close relations with China.

BANGLADESH

A border dispute and the exploitation of shared rivers are at the heart of the disagreements between the two countries. Moreover, political forces opposing each other's governments are seen as contrary to each country's interests, creating a conflictual atmosphere that has not yet escalated into war.

CONFLICT WITH CHINA

Following India's independence and the establishment of the Chinese communist regime, Sino-Indian relations were characterized by a certain friendship due to the similarity of their historical destinies and cultural affinities. However, China disputes the borders left by the British Empire, claiming two territories: Aksai Chin in the west and the current Arunachal Pradesh in the east, located south of the MacMahon Line. This dispute reflects opposing regional ambitions. Control of Aksai Chin would allow China to assert its control over Tibet, while its loss would mean that Tibet could not remain a buffer zone between China and India.

The deeper causes of the Sino-Indian conflict lie in the growing divergences between Sino-Soviet perceptions at the time, which played a role in amplifying the disputes between India and China. Tibet has thus become a point of contention. In late 1950, China secretly began building a road through Aksai Chin. Nehru realized this too late, and armed conflict erupted on October 20, 1962. India's defeat was total. China captured the disputed territories, and to India's humiliation, announced that it would unilaterally withdraw from the conquered lands. Chinese troops withdrew in January 1963, de facto redrawing the border.

In 1962, a brief war broke out between India and China over the delimitation of the Tibetan border (MacMahon Line) and the Ladakh region, where China had occupied Aksai Chin. In addition to this territorial conflict, a rivalry born of the Cold War emerged in the early 1960s, with India aligned with the bloc opposed to China. Furthermore, India's granting of asylum to the Dalai Lama, Tibet's spiritual leader, added another layer of contention between the two adversaries.

CHINA CONTINUES TO CLAIM 90,000 KM² OF INDIAN TERRITORY IN THE STATE OF ARUNACHAL PRADESH.

Since then, Sino-Indian relations have been characterized by two opposing features: a clear political will on both sides for improvement, and the persistence of constraints linked to geography and economics. Additionally, China provides valuable assistance to Pakistan in its nuclear and ballistic programs. This support strengthens Pakistan’s position relative to India and, in turn, weakens India compared to China by forcing it to face threats on two fronts.

The rivalry between India and China goes far beyond purely military matters, encompassing the broader strategic domain. India seems to struggle in coordinating its efforts regarding foreign relations into a dynamic strategy, which would be necessary for it to match China’s stature. India’s current attitude toward China is more one of containment than cooperation.

CONFLICT WITH PAKISTAN

During British rule, the predominantly Muslim region of Kashmir was governed by a Hindu Maharajah family, whose authority was contested by many Muslims, united within the National Conference, the main Kashmiri nationalist group founded by Sheikh Abdullah.

At the time of partition in 1947, Hari Singh, the ruling Maharajah, sought to join Kashmir to India, much to the dismay of the Muslim population, in exchange for a few privileges. This led to the declaration of war between India and Pakistan, which intervened in support of the Islamic opposition. The war ended on January 1, 1949, with the establishment of a ceasefire, splitting Kashmir into two territories.

The UN has since become a permanent party in the conflict, with the Security Council adopting a series of resolutions, most notably calling for a “free and impartial” plebiscite, which would allow the Kashmiri population to decide their future. However, mutual distrust between the two capitals and their uncompromising positions have prevented any concrete implementation of these resolutions. A United Nations Observer Mission was deployed along the Line of Control, but its powers remain limited.

In 1965, a conflict erupted along the ceasefire line, where the Indian army faced fierce resistance from Pakistani troops, leading to another ceasefire agreement on September 22, 1965.

Another conflict between the two belligerents occurred in 1971, resulting in the secession of East Pakistan (Bangladesh). The two adversaries then engaged in peace talks, culminating in the signing of the Simla Agreement on July 3, 1972. The two signatories acknowledged their differing viewpoints and committed to resolving their disputes through negotiation.

Additionally, under pressure from the United States, the two countries signed a non-aggression treaty regarding their nuclear facilities on December 3, 1988, intended to limit the risk of preemptive strikes. The treaty was ratified on January 20, 1991, and since then, diplomatic initiatives have taken precedence over direct confrontation. As a result, Prime Minister Vajpayee visited Lahore, where he was warmly received by Nawaz Sharif.

Since the nuclear tests, both leaders have shared the concern of preventing any escalation that could lead to a nuclear conflict, though they face internal opposition in their respective countries to any rapprochement. The Lahore Declaration, signed by the two heads of government, emphasized their commitment to bringing peace and prosperity to their peoples. Aware of their new responsibilities as nuclear powers and in respect of universal principles of peaceful coexistence, they reiterated their determination to implement the Simla Declaration and pledged to resolve their disputes, including the Kashmir issue, through peaceful means. Experts from both countries will organize consultations on security concepts and nuclear doctrines and will notify each other in advance of any ballistic missile tests.

However, India remains wary of the growing influence of military hawks in Pakistan and the uncertainty surrounding nuclear arms control, particularly after General Musharraf’s coup, which ousted the elected Prime Minister. The skirmishes between the two armies in the Kargil sector on May 26, 1999, were orchestrated by the government leader himself. This attitude thrusts the region into an uncertain future, with the specter of nuclear war casting a terrifying shadow over the region.

These insurmountable obstacles continue to hinder the full normalization of relations between the two countries.