The great ecological fear

INTRODUCTION

The Earth has always inspired in humans the illusion of stability and permanence; however, the multitude of research on the history of our planet has shown that it has undergone incessant evolution, often punctuated by violent crises. Today, due to its rapidly growing population and the technical means it employs, humanity has become a significant geodynamic agent that threatens the ecological balance of the Earth through negligence and shortsightedness.

Hans Jonas stated: "Act in such a way that the consequences of your actions are compatible with the permanence of an authentically human life on Earth." This recommendation highlights the ecological stakes that weigh heavily on the lives of all living beings in general and on human life in particular. The consideration of these issues began in the second half of the 20th century, and we are currently witnessing the perpetuation of disparities between nations and within nations, the worsening of poverty, famine, illiteracy, and the continuous deterioration of ecosystems upon which we depend for our well-being. Apparently, if we integrate environmental and development issues and give them greater attention, we can meet fundamental needs and improve the standard of living for all, with a view to ensuring a safer and more prosperous future. Unfortunately, human activity affects environmental quality and generates ecological imbalances, leading to significant and sometimes irreparable environmental damage, thus altering the relationship between humanity and nature, to the point that new and permanent fears arise within us.

In this context, one wonders whether environmental degradation constitutes a major ecological fear of the 21st century.

Situated at the heart of the major challenges of the third millennium, environmental degradation constitutes a significant ecological fear that threatens the future and stability of our globe. It generates new power dynamics in international relations, necessitating awareness of the resulting threats and the search for a salvific environmental defense policy. Following a study aimed at addressing the current environmental situation, the geopolitical stakes will be the subject of extensive reflection as they determine the perspectives that will emerge in the 21st century.

I - THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATION

At the beginning of the 3rd millennium, the environmental situation is characterized by the persistence of serious climatic threats, increased degradation of forests associated with striking desertification, and a pressing need for water due to population explosion, urbanization, and human activities that often generate severe pollution.

11 - Climate Change

Indeed, the establishment of a simple state of affairs confirms that serious threats result from global warming, which has accelerated over the past two and a half centuries. As a result, we observe:

• Hundreds of species are threatened, particularly in Russia, Canada, and Sweden.
• Some diseases will see their range expand, such as cholera.
• Favored by increased evaporation, storms, tornadoes, and rainfall are expected to intensify.
• Droughts will become more severe, especially at lower latitudes.

As for the worsening greenhouse effect, with its meteorological and geopolitical aspects, it remains one of the most pressing international issues today. Recently, with Russia's decision to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the international agreement aimed at combating global warming should finally come into effect in the early months of 2005. Unfortunately, the United States remains reluctant toward this protocol.

On the other hand, human activities that consume fossil fuels, such as industries and boilers that emit carbon dioxide, including industrial methane, nitrous oxide, etc., have quickly disturbed the composition of the atmosphere.

12 - Threats to the Ecosystem

Consequently, the major risks affecting the ecosystem provide an opportunity to study two phenomena: on one hand, the alarming disappearance of a significant number of species, and on the other, biodiversity, where humanity has continuously contributed to a substantial reduction of animal and plant populations. The rarity of certain species and the simplification of ecosystems are evident proofs of this. Agricultural, forestry, and fishing practices manage the majority of terrestrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems. However, in recent decades, their impact on biodiversity has been of a magnitude comparable to, or even greater than, that of the major prehistoric extinctions.

The destruction of habitats threatens approximately one-quarter of known mammals, with 75% of them found in tropical forests; more than 11% of birds are threatened with eradication, at a rate 1,000 to 10,000 times higher than that recorded during previous mass extinctions.

One of the most concerning issues remains that of invasive species, both terrestrial and marine, transported from one region of the globe to another via ship ballasts, airplane holds, and train and truck containers. The Rio Convention on Biodiversity recognized in 1992 that the world's greatest biological wealth is now located in developing countries and that its preservation is essential for the proper functioning of the planetary ecosystem.

13 - Consequences of Desertification and Deforestation

Similarly, another alarming phenomenon is desertification, as deserts typically progress due to the constant degradation of surrounding arid lands and unwise land use practices. Overgrazing, excessive cultivation, deforestation, and poor irrigation practices often combine to lead to the loss of wooded areas. In this context, the Earth Summit held in Rio developed a Convention to Combat Desertification; the necessity of such a framework is all the more imperative since desertification affects over 100 countries and nearly a billion people worldwide. The scale of the phenomenon is illustrated not only by these figures but also by the tragedy experienced on the African continent, where two-thirds of the area is affected by desertification. The economic losses attributed to desertification, which impacts a significant portion of the planet, are estimated at $42 billion, forcing some populations to migrate to cities or other regions of the world, which can lead to food insecurity, the formation of numerous refugees, and ultimately contributes to social instability.

As for deforestation, it refers to the large-scale destruction of forests for other uses. It is important to distinguish between deforestation and forest degradation; the latter manifests as damage to the quality of forest environments. Both phenomena are linked and cause various problems such as soil erosion and the reduction of biodiversity, particularly in tropical forests that host the majority of the globe's animal and plant species. Deforestation contributes approximately 4.5% to the total amount of CO2 released annually into the atmosphere by human activities, which continue to drive increasing demands such as "blue gold."

14- Blue Gold

Without water, life is impossible; this highlights the supreme importance of this "blue gold" for the survival of humanity.

Globally, the issue of water supply is becoming increasingly concerning due to the rapid population growth our planet has experienced over the past two centuries. This growth has been accompanied by significant industrial development, leading to new uses of water.

Currently, the world's water reserves are still sufficient to meet overall needs, but they are very unevenly distributed across the globe. While some countries face supply challenges, others are already experiencing serious and ongoing water shortages. Freshwater accounts for only 3% of the world's water, and if we exclude that which is locked in glaciers or polar ice caps, only 1% is available for living beings. Furthermore, the needs are not being met equally; for instance, an American uses an average of 900 liters of water per day, while an African uses only 30 liters, and an Israeli consumes four times more water than a Palestinian.

However, the water problem is not just quantitative; it is also qualitative, as aquatic ecosystems are dramatically degrading, and water pollution is on the rise. In developing countries, 80 to 90% of all diseases and more than a third of deaths are linked to water that is bacterially contaminated or chemically polluted, with half of these victims being children living in dire conditions either within or on the outskirts of major urban areas.

15- The Situation of Megacities

In the world, there are extremely populated cities known as megacities or megalopolises. While the situation in the North is relatively controlled by authorities, it is not always the same in developing countries.

Accelerated urbanization is indeed a characteristic of the South, where agriculture is often unable to ensure food self-sufficiency, and the illusory appeal of large cities draws in the youth. For example, Cairo is projected to grow from 12 million inhabitants in 1990 to over 25 million by 2025, making it one of the largest megacities in the world.

Urbanization is a brutal and total phenomenon that, combined with demographic growth, leads to a space problem. The equation to be solved revolves around overcrowding and survival. Uncontrolled urbanization undoubtedly brings new societal issues, especially as large urban centers in the North face their own challenges, such as pollution manifesting in various forms, including:

• Chemical pollution
• Air pollution
• Coastal pollution

After surveying the current environmental situation, which weighs heavily on this historical turning point for humanity marked by the awareness of the duality between socioeconomic development and ecological imperatives, it is now important to address the resulting geopolitical issues.

II- The Geopolitical Issues of the Environment

Most environmental issues, marked by the emergence of significant global risks, are deemed strategic because they condition future relationships between states and will determine the way of life for billions of individuals concentrated in urban areas on our planet.

21- Water and Its Strategic Issues

Indeed, blue gold, a natural treasure and a gift from the heavens that belongs to the common heritage of humanity, has become a strategic weapon at the center of the most serious geopolitical issues facing the 21st century. It is a rare and fragile resource whose overexploitation is already a reality, and agricultural questions weigh heavily on medium-term prospects. Public policies have largely favored the development of large irrigated areas without ensuring satisfactory management. Moreover, governments provide massive subsidies that significantly reduce the cost of irrigation water. In this regard, improving water productivity is essential and relies on technical, economic, and institutional measures.

Thus, it is crucial to place water and food at the center of regional and global discussions. Access to clean water at reasonable costs is a prerequisite for improving the health conditions of the most disadvantaged segments of the global population.

If the renewable resource available per capita decreases from 7,800 m³ per year in 1990 to 4,800 m³ per year in 2025, it is primarily due to direct demographic changes, which are amplified by shifts in consumption patterns and significantly increase demand in developing countries. Addressing these challenges requires profound changes in agricultural practices.

There are over 200 river basins worldwide. The management and sharing of these waters and their uses are not new issues, but they are taking on a new geopolitical or strategic dimension due to increased demographic pressure. The Middle East exemplifies such regions where undeniable tensions persist.

Two examples illustrate the significant difficulties that remain in this part of the world, suggesting that achieving regional water management will be a long journey: the sharing of the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates and the sharing of the waters of the Jordan and the Yarmouk River.

22- The Problematic of Desertification and Deforestation

Furthermore, desertification, linked to deforestation or the advance of arid deserts, is one of the main causes of the impoverishment of populations, stimulating their migration flows towards Northern countries.

Africa is experiencing the most severe desertification, affecting 400 million people in 36 countries. Two-thirds of the continent consists of desert or dry lands, and 73% of cultivable dry lands are already severely degraded, leading to famine, conflict, instability, and mass migration toward urban areas.

Deforestation remains a factor of tension between the North and the South, and it is a phenomenon with disastrous consequences that is also part of our century's geopolitical issues. It introduces significant risks of soil erosion in less developed countries and further undermines environmental quality worldwide. Every second, 5,000 square meters of primary forest disappear. In the last five years alone, over 65 million hectares of forest have vanished, particularly in the Amazon and China, due to unscrupulous exploitation and the incapacity of certain countries to prevent illegal logging. While the United Nations estimates that 9 million hectares have been rehabilitated or replanted, the deficit is enormous, and the 25 to 30-year cycle required for regeneration is no longer being respected.

23- Towards an Explosion of Megacities

Similarly, the number of cities in the world with at least 10 million inhabitants will rise to 25 by 2015. This figure alone underscores the significance of a phenomenon carrying some of the most serious dangers. In Asia, where urban concentrations are the highest on the planet, forecasts indicate that 20 to 40% of the urban population may face food insecurity in the coming years.

A considerable challenge thus arises: to meet the basic food needs of those without access to sufficient quantities of food, all while urbanization accelerates and food demand rises in megacities, which already house over 50% of humanity, with many households living in slums.

Urbanization, as a complex phenomenon, remains difficult to grasp, formulate, and control. However, two general principles seem to emerge: density and diversity, where many inhabitants seek their identities, lost between original rurality and distorted urbanity.

24- Other Factors of Tension

Finally, among the other factors of tension that are part of a reflection on the geopolitics of the environment, it is important to mention one of the strategic issues: overfishing and nuclear pollution.

• The sea is a source of life, but its resources are not inexhaustible. It remains a much more fragile asset than generally perceived. Fishery resources are declining at a concerning rate due to overfishing. Disputes have already occasionally erupted between fishermen from different nations, for example (between France and Spain in the Atlantic Ocean or between France and some countries in the Far East in the southern Indian Ocean). This illustrates the geopolitical stakes of the seas, whose eminently strategic interest can lead to real tensions in the future.

• Similarly, we must address the problem of nuclear pollution. The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine highlighted that some countries are no longer able to implement the necessary safety measures. This disaster resulted in many deaths and has led to an increase in cancers beyond the borders of that country. Furthermore, the existence of oversized military arsenals in Eastern Europe poses a concern, whether regarding their potential use or the danger they pose to the environment.

After examining the state of the environment at the beginning of the 21st century as a starting point for reflection, and then analyzing the major geopolitical issues that generate real tensions and could spark numerous disputes in the future, it is essential to conclude this analysis with a prospective exercise aimed at determining the major trends that should guide its evolution throughout this century.

III- WHAT PERSPECTIVES FOR THE 21st CENTURY?

The desire for a globally salvific international organization for the environment and the integration of an environmental dimension into the national policies of countries could herald a limitation of risks and guarantee a better future for humanity and the planet.

31- The Environment in the Realm of Global Governance

Indeed, globalization has weakened states and international institutions to the benefit of other power actors, such as Non-Governmental Organizations and multinational corporations.

Four schools of thought approach the respective weights of power actors within global governance differently, but all converge to recognize the relevance of environmental presence in its field of action. Regardless of differing opinions, the environment has now taken such a prominent place in the concerns of wealthy countries that the management of the planet should no longer be left solely to financiers and economists. On the contrary, it requires a sustained joint effort, from the grassroots to the top, from eminent actors.

Moreover, this globalization has altered the interstate system; within global governance, we are witnessing the rise of private authorities, particularly for environmental issues. Their motivations differ based on their interests, but their actions or demands contribute to the production of public goods in terms of the environment.

32- The Quest for a Balance of Powers

However, the development of international environmental law can only succeed if all private and public actors, both individually and collectively, are taken into account. The example of water is significant in this regard: it is the subject of over 300 international treaties, yet remains under the control of state sovereignty, leading to sometimes inconclusive conflict resolution related to water. Doctrines regarding the ownership and use of water resources generally align with the interests of the countries that defend them. Therefore, it is the responsibility of states and international organizations to structure cooperation at both local and multilateral levels, providing a coordinated response to problems of scarcity and the associated risk of conflict.

The previously mentioned problem of sharing the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates illustrates the possibility of blockage in the system of international relations. Turkey has refrained from signing the United Nations Convention of 1997 on the use of international rivers, thus depriving Iraq and Syria of any opportunity for recourse before international jurisdictions.

Conversely, the management of the Nile illustrates the opposite perspective. Ethiopian dam projects on the Blue Nile, along with developments by Kenya and Tanzania regarding Lake Victoria, exacerbate relations among the nine countries bordering the Nile.

Overall, international discussions on the environment can only yield satisfactory results if conducted within a fair framework accepted by all. The geopolitical balance in the environmental domain, like other global public goods, seems to correlate with a principle of global justice, in which the solidarity of wealthier countries would support poorer ones.

33- Geopolitical Perspectives for Environmental Defense

Furthermore, the last decade of the 20th century was marked by the proliferation of global conferences addressing the environment, involving either most of the United Nations states, numerous Non-Governmental Organizations, or a combination of both.

Gradually, the global consideration of the environment has shifted from a concept of protection to a concept of defense, moving from Rio to Kyoto. The charters, conventions, and treaties signed face opposition that illustrates the existence of geopolitical tensions both in the development of regulations governing harmful human activities and in their mere awareness.

For instance, at the Rio conference, the United States did not sign the convention on biodiversity. At the Berlin conference, the United States, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and some oil-producing countries opposed decisions made regarding the planned reductions in greenhouse gas emissions set for 2005, 2010, and 2020.

34- Towards a Better World

Finally, the multiplication of private or public initiatives for the environment illustrates the real awareness of ecological problems and the synergies developing around them. This awareness of the risks facing the environment was transferred to Europe in the 1970s, where the emergence of ecological thinking led to the establishment of new structures for the protection of the environment.

The growing interest in environmental preservation is justified by the necessity to find a balance between human development and the preservation of the environmental framework. In this context, international efforts continue to be deployed despite the numerous challenges faced to achieve the adherence of the entire international community to the necessary conditions for sustainable development, which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their aspirations and wishes.

CONCLUSION

The solutions that can mitigate environmental degradation represent a strategic issue for the 21st century. The scale of its consequences constitutes an ecological fear that weighs heavily on the future of living beings. Significant geopolitical tensions arise from this, urging decision-makers to adopt environmental defense agreements to ensure a better future for humanity and the planet.

Human beings will always be at the heart of decision-making processes and at the center of all operational or tactical devices. Even if the geopolitical analysis of the current environmental situation does not inspire much optimism, let us hope that one day, with colorful chalk on the blackboard of misfortune, it will draw the true face of happiness.