Is water a major source of conflict?

Introduction

For all time, water has accompanied the life of human beings and is thus at the heart of civilization. Since ancient times, water has been central to social, religious, economic, and health practices. This resource has, and continues to, inspire artists to indulge in poetry and influence the more practical reflections of architects. Due to increasing demand for domestic use, agricultural and industrial withdrawals, and urbanization, water scarcity is becoming more pronounced. Many observers fear a shortage that could pose a threat to humanity.

Water scarcity and its unequal geographical distribution provoke legal and political conflicts between many countries and communities around the world. Each country manages water without concern for its neighbors and disregards social inequalities. This situation gives water a crucial importance, to the point where some international observers claim that while many conflicts of the 20th century were over oil, wars in the 21st century may be fought over water resources.

1st PART: WATER SCARCITY AND INSECURITY

I. WATER RESOURCES
Experts predict that all surface water will be consumed by 2100 and that all available water in Earth's water cycle will be completely exhausted by 2230. Freshwater only represents 3% of the world's water supply. If we exclude water trapped in glaciers, polar ice caps, and deep aquifers, only 1% of accessible freshwater (in the atmosphere, lakes, rivers) remains for all living beings. However, 60% of Earth's land is in a state of water scarcity: one in five people lacks access to safe drinking water, and half of humanity does not have adequate sanitation. North African and Middle Eastern countries, with less than 2,000 cubic meters per capita per year, live under conditions of "water stress," which hampers their economic and social lives.

The world’s population is growing at an unprecedented rate. In the 16th century, there were 450 million individuals on Earth. Today, our planet supports 6.3 billion people, and this number is likely to stabilize around 10 billion by 2050. Of all the disasters threatening Earth that were widely discussed at the recent Johannesburg summit, the most alarming is perhaps the shortage of freshwater. Around 1.5 billion people are deprived of direct access to water, and another billion only have access to poor-quality, unsanitary, foul-smelling water, which kills 30,000 people each day. "Water scarcity is the greatest threat facing the planet," says Koichiro Matsuura, Director-General of UNESCO. Water will become a source of social, economic, political, and perhaps military tension.

According to projections, water resources per capita per year have decreased by 80% within a single human lifetime. For example, between 1960 and 2025, these resources will have dropped from 3,430 cubic meters to only 667. The alert threshold is set at 2,000 cubic meters per person per year.

The need for development, population growth, and unequal distribution all contribute to water scarcity and intensify its vital importance.

Indeed, water consumption changes significantly in response to the needs of economic growth, which requires the development of agriculture, industry, and urbanization. Agricultural consumption alone accounts for 75% of the world's available water. Water withdrawals have led to the drying up of the Aral Sea in Central Asia. Similarly, intensive urbanization, especially in developing countries, worsens the problem due to a lack of sufficient material and financial resources.

Additionally, demographic pressure greatly impacts water consumption. Population growth rates above 1.5% could have catastrophic consequences for developing countries, as they would struggle to provide adequate water to all their inhabitants. In the Middle East, the population will double by 2015, potentially making the management of groundwater supplies particularly explosive.

Lastly, water is one of the most unevenly distributed resources due to climatic differences. This leads to regions that are either rich in water or suffering from chronic drought and water scarcity. Currently, fewer than 10 countries are consuming their full water potential and will not be able to meet growing demand in the future. Others are heavily dependent on foreign supplies, such as Egypt (97% dependency), the Netherlands (89%), and Cambodia (82%). This situation makes water a critical issue and places it at the forefront of many states' concerns.

Thus, water scarcity is linked to human activity, and its unequal distribution intensifies its vital nature. The sharing of water resources is becoming increasingly necessary and may lead to conflicts without proper legislation in place.

II - General Water Issues

Water resources are limited and unevenly distributed. Out of the approximately 40,000 billion cubic meters of water that rainfall deposits on Earth each year, 60% irrigate only nine countries: Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, the United States, India, Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Russia. In other regions, such as around the Mediterranean, where water has long been scarce, the situation continues to worsen.

For example, in the summer of 2002, while catastrophic floods ravaged parts of Eastern Germany, Austria, and the Czech Republic, Sicily, a region already accustomed to severe droughts, experienced such a severe water shortage that popular revolts erupted in several locations.

Most countries, particularly those in development, practice poor water management:

• Excessive consumption in domestic use, industrial sectors, and especially agriculture, which alone consumes more than 69% of global freshwater use.
• Wastage, particularly in agriculture due to inefficient irrigation systems.
• Water pollution, caused by industrial and urban waste dumping, as well as the infiltration of groundwater by chemicals used in agriculture.
• Environmental degradation resulting from poor water management practices.

Given that freshwater reserves are finite, unevenly distributed, and impacted by factors such as climate variability and soil differences, humanity faces a growing water scarcity crisis. Additionally, human-induced factors like high population growth and increasing pressures on water resources exacerbate the issue, raising the risk of a severe global water shortage in the near future. In some regions, such as the Sahel in Africa, this grim reality has already materialized. Finding solutions to these issues is therefore of utmost urgency.

Furthermore, climate change, driven by the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, is accelerating the melting of glaciers and raising sea levels, further complicating the global water situation.

Large-scale projects like river diversion, where implemented, have often proven disastrous for the environment. In Uzbekistan, for example, which holds the world record for water consumption per capita, Soviet authorities in the 1960s-1970s diverted water from two rivers, Syr Darya and Amu Darya, to intensively irrigate cotton fields. This resulted in the partial drying of the Aral Sea, now reduced to half its size, with its water heavily polluted, leading to the extinction of local fauna and flora. It remains one of the worst ecological disasters to date.

Elsewhere, massive dam construction projects continue, such as the Narmada Dam in India and the Three Gorges and Xiang Lang Di Dams in China. Across developing countries, numerous water capture and distribution infrastructure projects are underway, with a new dam being inaugurated somewhere in the world almost daily. Whether aimed at irrigation or electricity generation, dam construction often submerges entire regions, disrupts fish migration patterns, and can cause downstream flooding. Deforestation, which fills rivers with soil, trunks, and branches, also contributes to this. Sometimes, the construction of water reservoirs in border areas reduces the flow of rivers crossing into other countries downstream, triggering protests from these nations.

Ambiguity of International Law

I - Definitions

a- National River
There is a strong consensus in doctrine, state practice, and case law to define a national river as a watercourse that lies entirely within the territory of a single state, from its source to its mouth.

b- International River
By reasoning in contrast, an international river could be defined as any river that does not fall under the definition of a national river. However, this logical approach did not historically allow every watercourse outside the definition of a national river to automatically be considered international.

Traditionally, international rivers were defined as watercourses that, in their naturally navigable course, either separate or traverse the territories of two or more states. These rivers are called successive rivers when they pass through two or more states, and contiguous rivers when they separate two or more states.

This definition of international rivers only took into account navigation, which was once considered their exclusive use. As a result, conventional law on this matter was closely tied to fluvial navigation law.
Today, it is sufficient for a river to involve at least two states in some manner. In its simplest form, international rivers are defined as "watercourses that either separate or cross territories of multiple states."

c- Evolution of the Legal Definition of International River
The Permanent Court of International Justice (PCIJ), in its judgment no. 16 of September 10, 1929, related to the International Oder Commission, gave the following definition of an international river: "a navigable river that provides access to the sea for several states." Most of the case law and international practice of the time adopted this definition, emphasizing the criterion of navigability for international watercourses.

d- Contemporary Definition of International River (The Basin Concept)
With legal instruments signed on April 20, 1921, following the Barcelona Conference, navigation lost its exclusivity as the sole economic function of "waterways of international interest." Navigation is still considered, but other uses are also accounted for. Article 10, paragraph 6, of the Barcelona Convention Statute states that a state may, under exceptional circumstances, discontinue a navigable waterway "if navigation is underdeveloped and the state justifies an economic interest that is clearly superior to that of navigation."

e- Integrated Basin
Originating in doctrine, the theory of the integrated river basin was developed within the International Law Association. This concept was first explored in Dubrovnik in 1956 and further elaborated during the New York session in 1958, where it was declared that "watercourses and lakes within a drainage area should be considered, not in isolation, but as an integrated whole." These ideas were confirmed by the Helsinki Rules in 1966, which represent a legal synthesis of extensive work by the Association on various water-related issues in international law.

The integrated basin theory is based on the complete and holistic use of the resources and potential of a geographical basin for multiple purposes and within an economic integration perspective. This theory combines two prior concepts: the river basin and optimum management.

f- International Drainage Basin
An international drainage basin is a geographical area that spans two or more states, defined by the boundaries of the hydrographic network’s catchment area, including both surface and groundwater, which ultimately converge at a common point.

The concept of an "international drainage basin" found in the Helsinki Rules adopted by the International Law Association in 1966 is based on the "coherence principle" formulated by Austrian jurist Hartig. This principle states that an international basin, even if it belongs to two or more states, must be considered as a whole, and its exploitation must be carried out equally by the riparian states.

II - Legal Shortcomings

Water is a shared resource between different countries, and the lack of effective international legislation regarding its management increases the potential for conflicts between countries sharing the same aquifers. Indeed, the majority of watersheds are transboundary and do not adhere to national borders. In this regard, nearly 40% of the world’s population depends on water resources shared by multiple countries. More than 200 rivers and lakes are bordered by at least two countries, and at least 10 rivers pass through half a dozen countries. Similarly, most Middle Eastern countries share the same aquifers.

This situation presents tension points that could lead to crises in the absence of effective international legislation. Moreover, international law suffers from legal gaps and deficiencies in the management of water resources. More than 300 treaties currently in force only cover 61 international basins, and these are generally insufficient tools for conflict resolution as they remain under the influence of sovereign states. Furthermore, the doctrines regarding ownership and use of water resources align with the interests of the countries defending them, granting advantages to the more powerful states.

The absence of international legislation regarding water favors the position of upstream countries and exacerbates tensions between countries using the same aquifers. For instance, if Turkey were to fully execute its plans for withdrawals from the Euphrates, the risks of conflict between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq would significantly increase. Similarly, tensions between Israel, Jordan, and Syria, which would compensate by increasing their withdrawals from the Yarmouk River (one of the main tributaries of the Jordan River under Israeli control), would also rise.

Thus, the legal vacuum in water management favors the emergence of conflicts between countries using the same resources, especially since these countries are already at the center of several current and potential conflicts. As a subject of regional geopolitical rivalries, water is at the heart of many contemporary conflicts and significantly influences the rise of future tensions and conflicts.

Indeed, water is central to regional hegemonic ambitions. It is closely linked to rivalries between countries, each seeking to assert supremacy over their neighbors. These rivalries risk worsening regional imbalances. For example, Turkey uses its water resources to maintain superiority over Syria and Iraq, with whom it is in constant competition. On the other hand, India uses its geographical position to undertake projects on watercourses before they enter Bangladesh, thus exercising hegemonic power in the region.

Finally, alongside real zones of tension, there are currently around 300 potential conflict zones due to neighboring rivers or shared groundwater resources. This includes the dispute between Hungary and Slovakia over the use of the Danube, and the growing tensions between former Soviet states over the waters of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya in Central Asia—an area that constitutes a high-risk potential flashpoint. This region is particularly vulnerable due to socio-economic problems and the presence of ethnic and religious tensions.

Therefore, situated at the core of regional rivalries and unresolved conflicts, water remains a significant factor for future conflicts.

In summary, due to intense human activity, high consumption, and the inefficiency and poverty of international law on the subject, the scarcity of water is increasingly becoming a major issue in many contemporary conflicts and will determine the occurrence and location of certain conflicts in the future.

WATER-RELATED CONFLICT ZONES

I - Middle East

1. The Israeli-Arab Conflict

The water situation is far more severe between the countries bordering the Jordan River, where water scarcity is a reality, and where water resources are insufficient to support economic development. Water has been at the heart of the Israeli-Arab conflicts for over 50 years and is now central to their peaceful resolution.

Israel’s goal, surrounded by Arab neighbors, has always been to alter the hydrographic situation in its favor, shifting from being a downstream country of the Jordan River to becoming upstream, controlling its resources and tributaries. Even before the official founding of the State in May 1948, Jewish Agency leaders sought to secure control over water. The sharing of the Jordan and Yarmouk waters has remained a constant source of tension between Syria, Jordan, and Israel, with no compromise achieved to this day.

After a clash between Syria and Israel on the shores of Lake Tiberias in the 1950s, American mediator Johnston proposed a settlement in 1955: Israel would receive 570 million cubic meters per year from the Jordan River, while Jordan would get 720 million cubic meters, and 360 million cubic meters from the Yarmouk would go to Jordan, with Syria receiving 20%. This plan, like others, was never implemented due to the hostility of the Arab League.

One of the reasons Israel cited for initiating the Six-Day War was the Arab governments’ conference on diverting Jordan River waters and building a dam on the Yarmouk. This war was initially a war over the Jordan River. As Golda Meir stated shortly before the war, “Countries that attempt to divert the Jordan are not just playing with water, they are playing with fire.” Following the conflict, Israel seized the entire Jordan Valley to the Dead Sea and, most importantly, the mountainous aquifer system of Judea and Samaria, along with the Dan and Banias tributaries of the Jordan and the Golan Heights, which supply over a third of the Jordan River's water. The conquest of the Golan Heights also ensured control over the ridgeline dominating Syria.

This plateau, the primary source of contention, was annexed by Israel in 1981. Israel's water supply remains its greatest vulnerability, as 65% of its resources come from areas outside its 1948 borders. The water sources in the West Bank, along with Lake Tiberias, are Israel’s only reserves. The annual consumption exceeds 2 billion cubic meters, with 65% used for agriculture, 22% for urban consumption, 7% for industry, and 5% for the occupied territories.

The issue of water in Israel is inseparable from the fate of the Palestinians. The dispute centers around the respective rights of the two communities, particularly over the Judea and Samaria aquifer system, which provides a third of Israel’s consumption. In 1990, one million Palestinians were allocated 120 cubic meters per person, while the 110,000 Israeli settlers received three times more.

Water is both a cause of war and peace here. There can be no peace without resolving water issues and vice versa. Water determines the future of the occupied territories and, beyond that, the prospects for peace or war. It is unlikely that any Israeli government would abandon parts of the occupied territories without an effective plan and guarantees ensuring permanent access to sufficient water resources or comparable access to other regional sources.

Israel’s objective in negotiations, which began after the Madrid Conference in 1991, is "water in exchange for peace." For Palestinians, free access to the Judea and Samaria aquifer system is inseparable from their autonomy and economic development, but it is equally crucial for Israelis. General Eytan, a former Minister of Agriculture, notably stated that “the return of Judea and Samaria in the context of Israeli-Arab negotiations would be a disaster for Israel, depriving it of half of its potable water reserves.”

2. The Turkish-Syrian-Iraqi Crisis

The water rivalries between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq are a pretext for addressing their broader security concerns, with each nation vying for regional power status at the dawn of the 21st century. Control over the upper course of a river gives the upstream country immense leverage over those downstream, allowing exploitation (pumping, irrigation, flow control), blackmail (dams, diversions), or harm (pollution). Turkey, which controls the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in southeastern Anatolia, enjoys this geographic advantage. While 98% of the Euphrates' flow originates in Turkey, only 28% of the basin is on Turkish soil, and the country also contributes 54% of the Tigris' flow. It was tempting for Turkish leaders to transform this geographical reality into geopolitical power.

The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), Turkey’s vast regional development project, includes 21 dams, 19 hydroelectric plants, and a complex network of tunnels and irrigation canals. The Atatürk Dam, completed in 1992, is the world’s ninth-largest, capable of storing four times the average flow of the Euphrates. The reservoirs needed to fill the GAP dams would reduce the flow of the Euphrates by one-fifth, and the Tigris’ waters will be primarily used for hydroelectric production. This has had clear consequences for Turkey’s downstream neighbors, and tensions have escalated.

In 1990, Syria and Iraq vehemently protested when Turkey reduced the Euphrates’ flow for 30 days to fill the Atatürk Dam. Again in 1991, Syria observed a significant drop in the water level of Lake Assad, which provides most of its electricity, forcing the country to implement major power and water cuts. The same scenario occurred in 1993 when Turkey filled the Birecik Dam.

Syria and Iraq continue to demand that Turkey sign an international treaty to allocate the waters fairly. However, during the Atatürk Dam's inauguration, Turkey's president declared that “our neighbors have no say in our projects. The GAP is within Turkish territory,” and asserted that “Syria and Iraq have no more right to Turkish waters than Turkey has to their oil.”

Without a regional agreement, each country has pursued independent national policies. Syria uses most of its water (9.9 billion cubic meters per year) for agriculture and has built three dams. Filling Syria’s main dam, the Tabqa, reduced Iraq’s water flow by a quarter, prompting Iraq to mass troops on the Syrian border. A Saudi mediation effort prevented armed conflict. Nonetheless, Syria’s goal of irrigating 1.4 million hectares by 2010 seems unrealistic, as it inevitably clashes with Turkey’s projects.

Iraq, on the other hand, faces two main challenges. Its abundant water resources (90 billion cubic meters per year) are increasingly polluted, with 65% of irrigated land contaminated by upstream pesticide runoff. Additionally, the GAP could reduce the Euphrates' flow by two-thirds, lowering it to 11 billion cubic meters, which would only irrigate 37% of the current land. Achieving food self-sufficiency appears impossible. Iraq and Syria refuse to cooperate with Turkey, fearing dependence that conflicts with their strategic interests. Thus, the water issue in this region is more of a political problem than one of scarcity.

If water disputes have triggered crises between Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, what is the hydro-conflict situation between Iran and Iraq?

Water-Related Conflict Zones

I. MIDDLE EAST

1. The Israeli-Arab Conflict
   The hydrographic situation between the countries bordering the Jordan River is critical due to a genuine water shortage, where the resources are insufficient to support economic development. Water has been a central issue in the Israeli-Arab conflicts for over 50 years, now at the core of peaceful resolution efforts.

   Israel, surrounded by Arab neighbors, has sought to modify the hydrographic situation to its advantage, transitioning from a downstream to an upstream nation regarding control over the Jordan River and its tributaries. Even before the official establishment of the State of Israel in May 1948, the Jewish Agency aimed to secure control over the water. The allocation of the Jordan and Yarmouk Rivers’ water remains unresolved to this day, causing tensions between Syria, Jordan, and Israel.

   In 1955, after skirmishes along the shores of Lake Tiberias, American mediator Johnston proposed a plan to allocate 570 million cubic meters (m³) of water to Israel and 720 million m³ to Jordan annually, along with a split of 360 million m³ of the Yarmouk River, with 20% going to Syria. However, this plan was never implemented due to the Arab League’s hostility. Israel cited Arab plans to divert Jordan River water as a pretext for launching the Six-Day War in 1967, a conflict Golda Meir described as “the Jordan Water War.”

   As a result of the war, Israel captured the entire Jordan Valley, the mountain aquifer system of Judea and Samaria, and the Golan Heights, which provide more than a third of the Jordan’s water supply. The Golan Heights remain a critical water resource, and control of these territories remains a major issue for Israel, which relies on external regions for 65% of its water supply.

   Water remains a contentious issue between Israelis and Palestinians, with debates over rights to the Judea and Samaria aquifer system, which provides a third of Israel's water. The distribution of water resources is significantly unequal, with Palestinians receiving far less than Israeli settlers in the region. The future of the occupied territories and broader peace hinges on resolving water access issues. Israeli negotiators aim to secure "water for peace" through negotiations, starting with the Madrid Conference of 1991.

2. The Turkish-Syrian-Iraqi Crisis
   Water disputes between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq center on control of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. Turkey’s Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) gives it control over the headwaters of these vital rivers, allowing it to control water flow downstream. This has caused tensions with Syria and Iraq, both heavily dependent on these rivers.

   The GAP project, with its numerous dams and hydroelectric power plants, impacts the flow of the Euphrates, leading to reductions in water availability downstream. In 1990, Turkey temporarily cut the flow of the Euphrates to fill the Atatürk Dam, leading to protests from Syria and Iraq. Further tensions arose in the 1990s due to water shortages caused by Turkish dam construction.

   Despite calls from Syria and Iraq for a water-sharing treaty, Turkey remains firm, stating that its projects are domestic. The lack of regional cooperation has caused further water-related conflicts, with Syria and Iraq developing their own dam projects, exacerbating water shortages downstream. The region's water disputes are more political than a matter of resource scarcity.

II. OTHER REGIONS

1. Iran-Iraq Conflict
   The dispute over the Shatt al-Arab waterway has pitted Arabs against Persians since the 16th century. The unequal 1913 treaty favored Iraq by giving it control over navigation. In 1975, Iran, seizing the opportunity during Kurdish unrest in Iraq, signed the Algiers Accord, redrawing the border in Iran’s favor. The Iran-Iraq war began in 1980, partly over Iraq's demands to regain control of Shatt al-Arab. After a prolonged and bloody war, Iraq achieved a revised agreement that established a more balanced water-sharing arrangement.

2. The Nile Basin
   The Nile River basin, which influences 40% of Africa’s population across 10 countries, is largely dependent on the Blue Nile, originating in Ethiopia. As populations in upstream countries like Ethiopia grow, water demand has increased, leading to tensions with downstream nations like Egypt, which relies on the Nile for 85% of its water. Ethiopia's plans to build 200 small dams have alarmed Egypt, which has threatened military action to safeguard its water supply.

3. India and Bangladesh
   Water disputes between India and Bangladesh over the Ganges River, which originates in Nepal, have been ongoing for years. Both countries depend on the river for irrigation, fishing, and other uses. A 30-year treaty was finally signed in 1996 to ensure a constant flow during crucial months, though tensions remain.

4. Southern Africa
   Namibia’s proposed pipeline to divert water from the Okavango River to its capital, Windhoek, has sparked fears of environmental devastation in Botswana, where the river feeds one of the world’s richest ecosystems. The pipeline could reduce water flow, threatening biodiversity. No resolution has been reached yet.

 ADDITIONAL CASES

• In Europe, water-sharing disputes over the Danube River between Hungary and Slovakia have forced the redrawing of borders along the river.
• Similar disputes exist between the United States and Canada, the United States and Mexico, and between Pakistan and India over the Indus River.
• Massive Asian hydraulic projects, such as China’s Three Gorges Dam, have also sparked controversies over water management.

These examples highlight the growing importance of water resources in both regional conflicts and international diplomacy, as nations seek to secure access to this vital resource.

Conclusion:

If water is scarce on the planet, its shortage and uneven distribution from one region to another cause geopolitical problems and pressures, often exerted by countries with unreasonable regional ambitions, particularly in the Middle East, where the water threat is more concentrated.

However, in the coming decades, water will become an increasingly critical issue for the survival of nations. This issue will become so significant that political tension between neighboring countries concerned with the use of natural water resources could lead to war, in the absence of preventive measures and arbitration tools.